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UID:398-39@berlinschoolofeconomics.de
CLASS: PUBLIC
SUMMARY:Research Seminar in Economics:  Christiane Baumeister (University of Notre Dame)
DESCRIPTION:Topic: Uncovering Disaggregated Oil Market Dynamics: A Full-In
 formation Approach to Granular IV\n\nSpeaker: Christiane Baumeister (Univ
 ersity of Notre Dame) with James D. Hamilton (University of California, S
 an Diego)\n\nTime & venue:\n\nThursday, 12.15–1.30 p.m.\n\nFU Berlin, Bo
 ltzmannstr. 16-20\n\nroom 202/ Kaminzimmer\n\nDescription: \n\nThe world 
 price of oil is determined by the interactions of multiple producers and c
 onsumers who face different constraints and shocks. We show how this featu
 re of the oil market can be used to estimate local and global elasticities
  of supply and demand and provide a rich set of testable restrictions. We 
 develop a novel approach to estimation based on full-information maximum l
 ikelihood that generalizes the insights from granular instrumental variabl
 es. We conclude that the supply responses of Saudi Arabia and adjustments 
 of inventories have historically played a key role in stabilizing the pric
 e of oil. We illustrate how our structural model can be used to analyze ho
 w individual producers and consumers would dynamically adapt to a geopolit
 ical event such as a major disruption in the supply of oil from Russia.
DTSTAMP:20241107T134224Z
DTSTART:20241205T121500Z
DTEND:20241205T133000Z
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