What made people take to the streets in East Germany in 1989, despite the risks of being arrested or watched by the secret police? And why did those protests grow so fast, spreading from city to city in just a few weeks?
A new study suggests that part of the answer lies in a surprising place: the network of Protestant pastors spread across East Germany. These local church leaders, connected through years of shared work and study, played a key role in helping protests move from one place to another. Their ties allowed information to flow, people to organize, and a powerful movement to build quietly—even under the watch of one of the world’s most repressive governments.
The authors of the study—Johannes Buggle, Max Deter, and Martin Lange—wanted to understand how protests spread in an authoritarian state, where speaking out could cost people their jobs, their freedom, or worse. While many protests are driven by common frustration or injustice, the researchers believed that personal networks, especially among trusted local leaders, might play a bigger role than people realized.
To test this idea, they focused on the Peaceful Revolution in East Germany, a wave of demonstrations in late 1989 that led to the fall of the Berlin Wall. They collected detailed information on more than 1,600 Protestant pastors, tracking where they had studied and where they had worked over the years. This allowed them to build a map of connections between cities based on where pastors knew each other from earlier parts of their careers.
Then they matched this network with protest data from 645 cities across East Germany, using weekly records from the months leading up to the collapse of the regime. By comparing when and where protests happened, and whether those cities were linked through pastors, the researchers could measure how much influence these connections had on the spread of demonstrations.
The results were clear. If a city was connected to another city through a pastor, it was about 4 percentage points more likely to have a protest the following week. That may not sound like much, but given how rare protests were at the time, it means these networks increased the chances of protest by more than 60 percent. And the effect was even stronger if a city was connected to Leipzig—the place where the first big protest happened in September 1989.
To make sure the results weren’t just due to pastors choosing to live in more rebellious cities, the authors used several strategies. For example, they looked only at connections formed during pastors’ first jobs, which were usually assigned by church authorities, not chosen by the pastors themselves. They also created a “placebo” test using pastors who worked or studied in the same places but missed each other by a few years. These almost-connections didn’t have the same effect, suggesting it was the real personal ties that mattered.
The study also found that some pastors had more influence than others. Those with more connections—called “central” pastors—were especially important in spreading protest. Their influence even reached cities where they didn’t currently work, showing how wide their impact could be.
Pastor networks were most helpful in cities that were farther from Leipzig, where news of the protests didn’t travel as easily. In these places, personal connections helped pass on information that the state tried to hide. The networks also had a stronger impact in areas with serious local grievances—especially where pollution from heavy industry was high. In these cities, people were already angry about environmental damage and poor living conditions, and the pastor networks helped turn that frustration into organized action. In places with more church members and stronger religious communities, the protests were bigger and more likely to continue.Interestingly, the protests that started in churches often led to more protests in both religious and non-religious settings. This means that the Church wasn’t just a shelter for a few brave voices—it helped ignite a broader movement.
Even in the most repressive parts of the country, where the Stasi (the secret police) had many spies and informants, the pastor networks still made a difference. The study shows that even under heavy surveillance, trust between people—especially trusted leaders—can create powerful change.
In the end, the authors estimate that without these networks, there would have been about 30 percent fewer protests during the Peaceful Revolution. That’s the difference between a scattered few and a nationwide movement.
This research shows that protests are not only driven by sudden outrage, but also by long-standing relationships and local networks. Even under heavy surveillance and repression, trusted connections between community leaders can play a key role in helping people organize and act.
On the authors
Johannes Buggle
Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Innsbruck. His research focuses on political economy, historical economics, and the long-term effects of institutions and migration.
Max Deter
Economist at the University of Potsdam and member of the Berlin School of Economics. His research interests are Political Economy, Regional Economics, Economic History, and Labor Economics.
Martin Lange
Researcher at ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research. He works closely with the research group on labor markets and social insurance, focusing on topics in political economy and applied microeconomics.
